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Cargojet Inc. has reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing lower sales and net income year over year but a 3.6% increase in Adjusted EBITDA and a 210 basis point expansion in Adjusted EBITDA margin, supported by 16.9% domestic revenue growth despite weaker ACMI and Charter revenues.
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Alongside these mixed earnings trends, the company raised its quarterly dividend by 10% to C$0.385 per share for the first quarter of 2026, signaling management’s confidence while higher net finance costs and other gains and losses weighed on reported net income.
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We’ll now examine how Cargojet’s higher Adjusted EBITDA margin and 10% dividend increase interact with its existing investment narrative and risk profile.
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To own Cargojet, you need to believe in the resilience of its time-sensitive air cargo model, especially its domestic network and long-term contracts with partners like Amazon and DHL. The latest results show pressure on sales and net income, but improving Adjusted EBITDA margins and solid domestic growth partly support that thesis. In the near term, the key catalyst remains execution on contract-backed volumes, while the biggest risk is still customer concentration; this quarter’s update does not materially change either.
The 10% dividend increase to C$0.385 per share stands out against weaker net income, because it directly affects how you might think about cash returns relative to earnings pressure and higher net finance costs. For investors focused on catalysts, this move now sits alongside improving Adjusted EBITDA margins as a key data point when weighing Cargojet’s ability to balance shareholder payouts with ongoing capital needs and uneven performance across ACMI and Charter segments.
Yet beneath the margin gains and higher dividend, investors should be aware of how rising finance costs and concentrated contracts could…
Read the full narrative on Cargojet (it’s free!)
Cargojet’s narrative projects CA$1.1 billion revenue and CA$111.6 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.7% yearly revenue growth and an earnings decrease of CA$34.1 million from CA$145.7 million today.
Uncover how Cargojet’s forecasts yield a CA$113.21 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.
Some of the lowest analyst estimates painted a far tougher picture, assuming revenue of about C$1.1 billion and shrinking margins, which contrasts sharply with the recent margin improvement and reminds you that expectations and risks can shift quickly as new results come in.