Vinicius Junior’s future has been one of the biggest topics at Real Madrid for months, but things really heated up this week.
Negotiations over his renewal are considered crucial because his contract runs out in June 2027. However, talks have stalled, and the picture has become complicated.
Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Mario Cortegana reported that Vinicius Jr told president Florentino Perez last month that he would not renew his contract while his relationship with Xabi Alonso remains so strained.
Vinicius Jr, 25, arrived at the Bernabeu for €45million (£39.4m; $52.1m) from Brazilian club Flamengo in July 2018, having turned 18 that month. After a slow start, he has become one of the team’s most valuable players, scoring in two victorious Champions League finals as well as winning three league titles.
The player could be considered already amortised, perhaps from both an accounting and sporting point of view, although the fact that he should still have the best years ahead of him changes the situation.
Madrid’s position is that they would like to renew his contract, but talks earlier this year did not produce an agreement over salary.
It is not the first time a Bernabeu heavyweight has come up against the club over an extension. What might happen next? Let’s go through the most likely possibilities.
Scenario A: Renewal on the terms he has asked for
Vinicius Jr signed a renewal at Madrid in 2022, the details of which were announced a year later. He currently earns around €18m (£15.8m; $20.7m) a year after tax in salary.
Earlier this year, Madrid made Vinicius Jr a renewal offer that included an increase in his wage to around €20m net a year. When this was not accepted, the club asked the player’s side to propose a figure.
Vinicius Jr’s representatives requested a package of up to €30m per season. This included base salary, performance bonuses, and a renewal bonus, something that has not been offered to players at Madrid previously.
Vinicius Jr and Mbappe celebrating on Wednesday (Angelos Tzortzinis / AFP via Getty Images)
Madrid’s current highest earner is said to be Kylian Mbappe when factoring in wages and bonuses. He reportedly agreed an annual wage of around €15million after tax when joining on a free transfer last summer. The Frenchman also received a substantial signing-on fee (the exact figure has not been confirmed, but various reports have placed it between €100m and €130m) and all of his image rights — again, something that has not happened with every Madrid player.
If Vinicius Jr’s view on his situation with Alonso improves, and Madrid were also happy to meet his previous demands, this would be the quickest resolution, but it does not feel the most likely.
Scenario B: Compromise is reached
This is a scenario that Vinicius Jr might not be willing to accept, but it is certainly the one Madrid would favour best.
Beyond wanting to secure the long-term future of a valuable asset and important footballing figure, Madrid would also likely prefer to see their salary scale respected. If they make an exception for Vinicius Jr and drastically increase his compensation, that might lead to other key players seeking the same in the future.
From a footballing perspective alone, it would be hard to argue that Vinicius Jr should be considered above Mbappe in terms of importance right now. Mbappe’s seven-minute Champions League hat-trick against Olympiacos on Wednesday was the latest example of that.
So far this campaign, Vinicius Jr has scored five goals and provided six assists. Last season, he scored 22 and assisted 19 times. Mbappe got 44 goals and five assists last term, and he already has 22 goals and three assists over 2025-26.
Since missing out on the Ballon d’Or last year, Vinicius Jr’s level has dropped significantly compared to his lofty standards. Madrid might argue that this should be taken into consideration.
Perhaps a compromise on salary might also lead to a compromise on contract length. A more favourable option for the player might be to renew for a short contract rather than a long one, with a view to a future re-negotiation from a position of strength.
Scenario C: Madrid decide to sell
If no breakthrough is reached, Madrid will have to consider this option. Not doing so would make poor business sense. But how much is Vinicius Jr worth now? And who might want to come in for him?
He has a €1billion release clause in his deal with Madrid, but the CIES Football Observatory estimates his market value at €166million, a figure that takes into account the 2027 end date of his contract.
Vinicius Jr and Florentino Perez in December 2024 (Christopher Pike – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
Given Vinicius Jr’s quality, age and experience, it wouldn’t be difficult to imagine almost every team in Europe considering a move for him, if they could make the finances work. In 2024, a delegation working on behalf of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) was keen to explore him joining a Saudi Pro League club, but this did not develop into anything concrete.
We are already deep into the realm of speculation here, but it would be logical to assume that any transfer, either in this coming January window or the following summer, would reduce the amount of money Vinicius Jr’s next club would be able to offer him.
Scenario D: He runs down his contract and leaves on a free
Again, we are speculating here, but if Vinicius Jr were to reach the final six months of his contract (from January 2027), he would be free to negotiate with clubs. As he would not command a transfer fee, any move would be potentially very lucrative for him, as it was for Mbappe.
This would be the least desirable scenario from a Madrid point of view. They would lose a very valuable player for free, one who would be difficult to replace from a sporting and commercial perspective. It would be particularly damaging because they would also lose the opportunity to finance a replacement.
Two cases in recent Madrid history can provide a degree of partial illumination here — partial because there is still one key difference between Vinicius Jr’s situation and what happened with Sergio Ramos and Cristiano Ronaldo.
Vinicius Jr renewed his contract in 2022 (Angel Martinez/Getty Images)
First, Ramos. The club legend, a former captain and centre-back, left Madrid as a free agent in the summer of 2021, bringing a rather abrupt end to 16 years at the Bernabeu.
Following tense negotiations with Perez over a new deal, the Madrid president decided to withdraw the club’s offer, and the then-35-year-old joined Lionel Messi at Paris Saint-Germain.
Then there is Ronaldo. Back in the summer of 2018, Madrid ended up selling a player who had scored 44 goals in 44 games in a campaign that culminated in the club’s third consecutive Champions League title.
Despite both being considered Madrid legends, these cases are still seen as exemplary within the club. In Ronaldo’s case, a fee of €100m from Juventus was considered good business for a 33-year-old whose wage demands they were not willing to meet, while Ramos’ departure coincided with an emphasis on investing in promising young talent instead.
Might Vinicius Jr’s case lead to a new precedent at the club? Time will tell. Right now, the next move is difficult to predict.