Each week through the end of the regular season, we’ll check in on where I think the major individual awards races stand. This week, with NBA All-Star Weekend just behind us, we don’t have games to really update races from last week, so we’re going to switch things up a bit and look at who the All-NBA teams might feature.
Here’s how the Awards Watch shakes out: Since 2019, I have been one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It’s an honor I take very seriously, as I strive to select the players I believe are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. This analysis is a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and readers of The Athletic.
As is the case with all types of rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s just get this out of the way first:
- Yes, I watch the games.
- Yes, I have looked at the numbers.
- No, I don’t hate that player.
- No, I don’t hate that team.
- If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.
- With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting into consideration.
- Don’t forget the 65-game rule! Players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.
Let’s get into it.
All-NBA First Team
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
Right now, he’s the MVP favorite. Yes, we’re unsure if another candidate will remain eligible the rest of this season, but Gilgeous-Alexander is looking to grab his second straight MVP trophy with his dominance. He’s averaging 31.8 points with an absurd 67.0 true shooting percentage. His 55.4/39.0/89.2 shooting splits have him unbelievably close to a 50-40-90 season. On the way to unanimous MVP honors in 2016, Steph Curry put up 50-40-90 splits while averaging 30.1 points. SGA could end up with the highest scoring average among members of the 50-40-90 club.
Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
We know Big Honey can only miss one more regular-season game after missing about a month with a hyperextended knee. Before the injury, he might have been running away with MVP. Of course, an eligible Jokić will easily make the All-NBA First Team. He’s averaging 28.7 points on a league-leading 69.9 percent true shooting. He’s also leading the league in rebounds (12.3) and assists per game (10.7). He’s in the running for the greatest individual season of all time.
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
He is finally on the betting board for MVP on BetMGM, as he should be. He’s also in danger of being ineligible for end-of-the-season awards consideration with 14 missed games, but Wembanyama has been on a tear for the team with the second-best record in the Western Conference. He’s putting up 24.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 2.7 blocks per game. He may not have a chance at MVP due to missed games, but he’s easily All-NBA First Team if he stays healthy enough.
Cade Cunningham, Pistons
I’ve heard conversations about Cunningham winning MVP if Jokić and SGA find themselves ineligible. Cunningham led the Pistons to the best record in basketball through the All-Star break. They’re still a winning team when Cunningham is on the bench with a plus-3.6 net rating, but they are beyond dominant with Cunningham on the floor with a mark of plus-11.0. The only knock on him is his low 3-point percentage (33.0), but he’s done everything right. He’s an easy selection for All-NBA First Team after making the Third Team last season.
Jaylen Brown, Celtics
Brown is another one of those guys in the “what if” MVP discussions. Nobody had the Celtics being close to this good, and they might end up as the No. 2 seed in the East. After all of those losses from the roster? That’s some true value stuff from Brown. He has some tough competition for trying to edge him out of the first team, but he’s got as good a case as anybody. He’s been a spectacular two-way player and is very deserving of his first first-team selection.
It’s always interesting to me when people mention how many All-Star appearances someone has long before we get the number of All-NBA selections. I get that All-Star just has better branding as a term, but that usually means you’re 1) very popular, 2) you had a great first couple months or 3) both. All-NBA means you were one of the 15 best or most impactful players in a season. Now that the All-NBA voting has gone entirely position-less, it’s very easy to just slap your MVP ballot onto the First Team and take it from there with the Second and Third Teams. That’s where we head next.
All-NBA Second Team
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
Edwards is one of those guys trying to knock Brown off the First Team. He has added to his already-robust game with stellar work in the low post and mid-post. That’s helped him find balance and great decision-making on shot selection when games reach clutch moments. He’s making over 60 percent of his clutch shots. We know Edwards continues to get better, but he’ll need the Wolves to get higher than fifth in the West if he wants a no-brainer case for First Team.
Jalen Brunson, Knicks
Brunson is another guy very deserving of first-team consideration. What will help him is if the Knicks go on another run and find themselves in the driver’s seat for the No. 2 seed. Despite the roller-coaster nature of the Knicks’ season, Brunson has remained consistent. He’s always a candidate to find himself on the MVP ballot. He’s scoring 27.0 points per game and really doesn’t turn the ball over. And with his clutch reputation, teams are terrified of him in big moments.
Tyrese Maxey, 76ers
I don’t like factoring in what happened during a prior season because that should have nothing to do with awards in the current season. At the same time, it’s hard not to notice the stark contrast between the 76ers’ last two seasons. A big part of their current success is the team successfully growing to be Maxey’s. He immediately sets the tone before former MVP Joel Embiid fits in. Maxey is averaging 28.9 points and playing the most minutes (38.9) in the league. His playmaking is good with low turnovers.
Kawhi Leonard, Clippers
Leonard is another guy with iffy eligibility, but he’s been unstoppable since about late November. In his last 33 games, Leonard is averaging 29.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.0 steals per game. He has 49.1/38.0/90.2 shooting splits over this stretch. And it’s a big reason the Clippers have turned around their season. Normally, this kind of run would grant first-team consideration, but I don’t think he’ll get there. LA’s record (26-28) is still too bad, and it took him a month to get this production going. All-Star Weekend was a reminder of what he’s been doing and what he’s capable of continuing to do, though.
Kawhi Leonard steals the ball from Luka Dončić during a Clippers-Lakers game earlier this season. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images)
Luka Dončić, Lakers
Dončić is high on MVP betting odds because of two things: 1) name recognition with him and the Lakers causing a lot of money to flow that way in the bets, and 2) he’s leading the league in scoring (32.8) while also averaging 8.6 points and 7.6 rebounds. The defensive issues are a big talking point, but he’s still performing at an unreal level. He might be a sneaky first-team pick.
All-NBA Third Team
Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers
The Cavs are having a better season than many realize, but it’s not the season they had a year ago. Mitchell has still been stellar. He’s putting up 29.0 points on 61.9 percent true shooting. The Cavs are really good and pretty dominant with him on the floor. They’re a losing team when he’s on the bench. Cleveland simply can’t afford to have him take extended time away.
Kevin Durant, Rockets
I guess we’re just used to it, but Durant is having another phenomenal season. He is also flirting with a 50-40-90 campaign with free-throw shooting (88.0 percent) being the only thing holding him back. All of that while putting up 25.8 points per game as he tries to lift the Rockets to the next level they were missing last season.
Steph Curry, Warriors
Curry is right on the threshold of not being eligible. He can miss only one more game and has already been ruled out of Thursday’s game against Boston. After that, he is not allowed to earn his 12th All-NBA selection. He’s averaging 27.2 points per game with a 63.6 percent true shooting. Without him on the floor, the Warriors go from a pretty good offense to something you’d accuse of tanking.
Jamal Murray, Nuggets
Murray earned the first All-Star nod of his career, and he is also working toward the first All-NBA selection. He’s averaging 25.7 points and 7.6 assists per game. His 48.5/42.5/88.7 shooting splits are also flirting with a 50-40-90 season. And the biggest feather in his cap is that the Nuggets are 10-6 this season when Jokić doesn’t play. The biggest reason for that is Murray leading them to wins.
Jalen Duren, Pistons: Duren’s case for All-NBA is pretty sound, and he has a great chance at getting his first selection, which would coincide with his first All-Star nod. He’s putting up 17.7 points and 10.4 rebounds per game, while also making the Pistons one of the best defensive teams in the league. His improvement on offense in the short areas outside of the basket is a big reason the Pistons have grown even more. He might make All-Defense and All-NBA.
There are other players to consider for the 15 spots given out so far this season. And we have plenty of time to change things around while seeing players drop off or make pushes or both. The 65-game rule has certainly changed the way we view this endeavor and how we keep track of seasons going on. We’ll finish with players either in danger of being ineligible or have already crossed that threshold.
List of players in danger of being ineligible: Jokić (missed 16 games), Curry (16), Wembanyama (14), Brandon Miller (17), Leonard (13 games)
List of players already ineligible: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Anthony Davis