Any NBA Power Rankings with a week or less left in the season is always going to run into a serious methodological problem: 10 teams are eliminated from contention, so using the standard of “how likely are they to win the NBA Finals?” isn’t super useful. Moreover, it’s boring. So we’re going to have maximum fun instead.
It’s time for some serious tiering. You think you’ve seen tier lists before; you have not. This NBA season has been so chaotic and so specific that we are going to have tiers popping out of drawers. You get a tier, they get a tier; we got honorable mentions, Celtics role-player tiers in the margins and such a deep tanking tier it had to be separated into five sub-tiers. There has never been an NBA Power Ranking that has had this much fun. I guarantee it.
Tier 1: It would be disrespectful to place anyone else in this tier
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
A long time ago in a column far, far away (in my college newspaper), I introduced a concept called “The Assumption Barrier” when it comes to ranking sports things, players, accomplishments, whatever. Basically, in order to become “the best (anything),” you have to break “The Assumption Barrier,” or the basic assumption we all have that the current best thing is still the best thing. You have to do something overwhelmingly spectacular to break it — think Michael Jordan vs. LeBron James. I can concoct an argument that James has had a better career, but he never broke the Assumption Barrier.
There are reasons to question the Thunder’s hegemony this year, but nobody has cracked OKC’s Assumption Barrier this season. The San Antonio Spurs have had an incredible season, but I’m simply not picking them in a seven-game series against OKC. Nor can I pick the worse-than-last-year (maybe) Boston Celtics over them. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is, simply, the best scoring guard I’ve ever watched with my own two eyes. When he attempts a shot, I am shocked if it does not go in. There is no player so intentional and so in control; and even the other best players are not surrounded by such a complementary cast. It’s the Thunder until someone proves otherwise.
Tier 2: The other two serious contenders (for very different reasons)
2. Boston Celtics
This is a shocking ranking. You should be shocked. I am shocked, we should all be profoundly shocked, because what in tarnation made the Celtics think they could win 50+ games after losing Jayson Tatum (for most of the year), Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet? Guys, this is shocking stuff.
Not a single smidgen of my Celtics brain thought I’d be ranking them second overall in my final power rankings of the season, but Jayson Tatum’s return has been that impactful. Jaylen Brown went up like four levels this year, and several cast-offs/nobodies became cast-ONS and SOMEBODIES and now this team is the favorite in the Eastern Conference … guys, how did we get here?
(Unofficial Honorable Mention Interpolation Tier: Celtics Role-Player “How Are You Doing This?” Rankings:
- Neemias Queta
- Luka Garza
- Baylor Scheierman
- Hugo Gonzalez
These four have been so absurdly good relative to our expectations for them [we did not have any expectations] that they deserve their own mini-tier. There will be more mini-tiers)
3. San Antonio Spurs
Unlike the Celtics, who are a contender by institution, this team is all promise and potential. Nothing is impossible for this team anymore so long as Victor Wembanyama is standing upright, because when he stands upright, he’s like a foot taller than everyone else. This team is oozing with danger for the Western Conference hopefuls; Dylan Harper has legitimately special, franchise-changing talent, and I am following the rest of NBA media off the cliff with thinking this team can win the Finals now. The lone knock against them is a lack of big-game experience; that might matter, but I haven’t watched this team all year just to hand-wave their chances on something so mercurial.
(First Official) Honorable Mention Interpolation Tier A: Coach of the Year Rankings
- A1. Joe Mazzulla
- A2. JB Bickerstaff
- A3. Mitch Johnson
This will be the final, final Celtics thing in this list, I promise, but I don’t see how Mazzulla is not the favorite for Coach of the Year? Hello? His team lost four of their seven best players, including an All-NBA First Team superstar to an Achilles tear, and they just … didn’t really get worse? The Pistons have been great and they deserve their flowers, but this is just an iconic coaching job from Mazzulla. Ask him if he wants the award. He’d be happy to talk about it.
Tier 3: Teams that could win the NBA Finals, but I’d say “wow” if they did
4. Los Angeles Lakers
Cannot believe this team is number four. Cannot believe Luka Dončić was just allowed to come here without resistance from the authorities. Cannot believe this is a likable, watchable, legitimately good basketball team that can win the NBA Finals and I wouldn’t be shocked. LeBron James did it again, winning the Lakers a title and rebuilding them at the same time. The long con. The LeBrong con.
5. Detroit Pistons
The Cade Cunningham injury has put a damper on a spectacular season, and while they have been doing pretty darn well without him, if he misses any kind of time in the postseason/isn’t 100 percent, this will be tough. Still, if he can make it back and be the guy he’s been all season, there is no limit for Detroit. Nor should there be — they’ve earned a Top 5 nod.
6. New York Knicks
This team is like when you sign a lease on an apartment without touring it first: you thought you had a window, but you actually didn’t (ba-dum chhhhhh). In all seriousness, the Knicks are obviously a contender, but they’re also obviously not in that top tier of contenders … which is unfortunate for a team that went all-in with Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges and isn’t exactly overflowing with options to improve. Windows are fickle in sports; sometimes they close too fast, other times they were never open in the first place.
7. Denver Nuggets
I won’t bemoan the Nuggets, who have basically had the same exact team with minor alterations since winning the NBA Finals in 2023. Can they win it all? Of course, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić operate a two-man game that can beat anyone … they literally did. Will they win it all? Probably not, or at least I can’t responsibly predict that. They’ve been too shaky at the end of games and are bottom-10 in defensive rating. Plus, it just doesn’t look right. These are the top-level insights you read Oliver Fox content for.
Tier 4: The last teams I can conceptualize winning the Finals
8. Cleveland Cavaliers
Really weird situation in Cleveland, a team that traded Darius Garland for James Harden because “screw it, we can win the Finals right now” and is now … sorta … not in a position to do so. I wouldn’t be buying a lot of Cavaliers stock, but they are in a very good position in the East and could basically beat anyone to get to the Finals. But I have a hard time imagining them beating anyone who gets out of the West.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
I have watched so many Timberwolves games this season because I thought to myself oh, this will be fun the Timberwolves are a fun team and then it turns out to be so not fun and they blow some game they totally should have won. Anthony Edwards is always box office, so there’s that. But I have no idea how to project this team when they rely on Julius Randle for such a major part of their offense and Bones Hyland for … whatever it is he does night to night.
10. Houston Rockets
A textbook case of how you can’t just assume you’ll keep getting better. Last year’s Rockets felt ahead of schedule, but we had every reason to believe that the Jokić-ization of Alperen Şengün would continue; every reason to hope for more from Reed Shepherd; every reason to think that the Amen Thompson-could-be-Paul-George hype train could advance a few more stops. Unfortunately, injuries have ravaged all that this team could have been, and they are borderline unwatchable when it’s bad. They still have Kevin Durant and lots of great players to succeed with, but no sane person would pick this team to go far in the West. That would be silly.
Honorable Mention Interpolation Tier B: “Western Conference Quagmire” (WCQ) Player Rankings
- B1. Nikola Jokić
- B2. Luka Dončić
- B3. Anthony Edwards
- B4. Kevin Durant
I’ve been fascinated by this four-team waltz in the West all year, in which we had the Lakers, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Rockets dancing around each other like one of those Victorian balls where you keep switching partners and then it’s a whole scandal who is with who and ultimately progresses the plot of Bridgerton. Got me? I’m calling it the “Western Conference Quagmire,” even though it’s basically settled on the rankings above. It’s also fascinating because so many great players are on these teams and there are four elite first options, which I have ranked above. The Western playoffs are going to be carnage. I cannot wait.
Tier 5: I would be flabbergasted if these teams won the Finals
11. Atlanta Hawks
12. Toronto Raptors
We will now enter the part of the Power Rankings where I must start grouping teams together. The Hawks and the Raptors are a good pairing because they are both not-Play-In teams but also not-going-to-win-the-East teams. I think both these franchises should be proud of the season they’re having, especially the Hawks, who traded Trae Young and could have easily said “welp, tanking time” but didn’t. Jalen Johnson has been excellent, and shoutout Brandon Ingram for hooping all season. I’ve been impressed.
13. Philadelphia 76ers
14. Los Angeles Clippers
15. Charlotte Hornets
We’re calling this the “theoretical sub tier” because the theoretical maximum output of these teams could hit like a truck while the actual expected output of these teams will probably hit like a Hot Wheels car to the big toe. If the 76ers stay healthy for four rounds and win the title I will eat my hat. If the Los Angeles Clippers make Benedict Mathurin, Darius Garland and Kawhi Leonard all exist in harmony and win four rounds I will eat another hat. If the Charlotte Hornets coalesce into a titanic force of playoff destruction … I won’t necessarily be as surprised because they have led the NBA in Net Rating for all of 2026, but I will probably still wind up eating another hat. There is a potential for me to eat three hats here. Three!
Tier 6: The “No shot. There’s just no shot.” Crew
16. Miami Heat
17. Orlando Magic
Florida has come at us with a couple of perplexing teams, squads that have either nothing on paper but something in reality (the Heat) or something on paper and nothing in reality (the Magic). The Heat are … the Heat, and will do whatever their demon magic allows them to, but I simply thought Paolo Banchero would be more efficient than this. I simply thought the Eastern Conference was bad enough where the Magic could make some waves. They have made no waves. They are the flattest water imaginable. It’s not even choppy it is just ice calm. Perfect for wakeboarding.
18. Phoenix Suns
19. Golden State Warriors
20. Portland Trail Blazers
I have to be careful with putting the Phoenix Suns here lest I invoke Mat Ishbia’s wrath, but (breaking news) I don’t see the Suns winning the title. I don’t see either of these other teams winning the title either. In point of fact, I don’t see the Warriors or Trail Blazers making it out of the Play-In. In point of another fact, these teams are kind of boring because they aren’t officially tanking but might enter this offseason wishing they had. I have five entire tanking tiers below, surely they could have found their way into one of them. Except for the Suns — they don’t have their pick.
Honorable Mention Interpolation Tier C: Broadcast NBA Theme Song Rankings
- C1. “Roundball Rock” (NBA on NBC)
- C2. All the other songs
Less of a sub-tier and more of a simple appreciation post for a song I didn’t get to enjoy as a kid. Roundball Rock is so obviously the best NBA theme, and honestly, the best sports theme in general. I was not alive in the 1990s and thus missed the first Roundball Rock administration, but we’re so back. John Tesh is immortal.
(Tanking) Tier 7: Solid midseason tanking pivots
21. Milwaukee Bucks
22. Memphis Grizzlies
23. Dallas Mavericks
I have done my whole shtick on Giannis and the Bucks and that whole fiasco, but they lucked out with having themselves and the Pelicans both suck this year so they will probably get a Top 10 pick. The Grizzlies will also get such a pick, but they have some broad, franchise-level figuring out to do before we’re ready to Grizzly it up again. The Dallas Mavericks made some responsible roster decisions around Cooper Flagg, who looks like a potential mega star, including firing Nico Harrison — a paragon of irresponsible roster decision-making. Do we need five years to recover from the Luka trade? 10 years?
(Tanking) Tier 8: We weren’t trying to tank, but it happened anyway
24. New Orleans Pelicans
25. Chicago Bulls
Two hilarious teams in hilarious states of peril and sadness. The Pelicans traded their unprotected first-round pick to draft Derik Queen last year, and are now left in a generationally stacked draft with solid odds at a Top 5 pick … for the Hawks. They have played some good basketball late in the season but it was too little, too late. The Bulls are just a trainwreck in the slowest possible motion, unfolding over multiple years and multiple refusals to pay the luxury tax in one of America’s most iconic sports cities. Whoever takes over the Bulls’ GM job and saves them might be canonized as a saint. The Pope is from Chicago.
(Tanking) Tier 9: Tanking lifetime achievement award
26. Utah Jazz
27. Brooklyn Nets
Two tanking teams, both alike in indignity, in fair NBA Draft Lottery where we question why we even do this anymore. The Utah Jazz have now been unabashedly tanking for four consecutive seasons, and the Brooklyn Nets have been recovering from disaster after disaster for (checks watch) my entire teenage and adult life. These teams have made losing into art, failure into an institution. Queue applause.
(Tanking) Tier 10: God-tier tanking that scholars will study for generations
28. Washington Wizards
29. Indiana Pacers
There was a moment in March of this very year when these teams were on a combined 31-game losing streak. The Wizards have been an abomination for years now, but the Indiana Pacers were in the NBA Finals last year and took the number one team on this list to seven games. Yes, they lost Tyrese Haliburton for the season, but only prime Michael Jordan or Tim Duncan or Kareem are worth 30 wins. They are going to lose 30 more games than last year. 30!!!! Perhaps Haliburton is the GOAT.
(Tanking) Tier 11: Certainly a basketball team
30. Sacramento Kings
It is entirely possible that this team, the worst team in the league, with no exciting young players and the fifth-highest payroll, is legitimately this bad. I do not think they were trying to tank. I do not think they thought they were rebuilding. They are just purely, gloriously, spectacularly terrible.