The narrative around Blackbaud has shifted recently as research firms reworked their models and reset price targets, with one fair value estimate moving from $74.50 to $59.80, roughly a 20% trim. That change sits alongside tweaks to the discount rate and assumed revenue growth. This reflects a mix of renewed caution and measured optimism about how the story could play out from here. Stay with this article to see how you can keep on top of these evolving assumptions and stay updated on the changing narrative around the stock in the future.
Recent research from Evercore ISI, Stifel and Raymond James has centered on Blackbaud’s valuation, with all three firms revisiting their price targets and taking a more cautious stance.
š Bullish Takeaways
Even as Evercore ISI, Stifel and Raymond James lowered their price targets, each update kept coverage in place, which signals that analysts still see a case for Blackbaud based on its execution, cost control and ability to drive revenue growth over time.
Their commentary, while more guarded, continues to focus on operating discipline and the potential for ongoing progress on margins and growth momentum. This suggests that the long term story is still intact in their models.
Across the three notes, analysts appear to be rewarding management for keeping the business on track and for providing enough transparency for them to refresh assumptions rather than stepping away from the stock.
š» Bearish Takeaways
Evercore ISI cut its price target by US$25, Stifel lowered its target by US$20 and Raymond James also cut by US$25, which collectively points to a reset in what these firms think is a reasonable valuation for Blackbaud.
The revisions suggest increased caution around how much upside is already priced in, with analysts factoring in higher discount rates, more conservative revenue assumptions and a greater focus on near term risks before assigning higher targets.
The cluster of target cuts in February 2026 underlines that, while execution and cost control are recognized, some analysts see a risk that expectations had moved ahead of what they are currently comfortable underwriting in their models.
Blackbaud’s board adopted amended and restated bylaws that align with developments in Delaware law, update stockholder nomination and proposal procedures, refine disclosure requirements for nominating and proposing stockholders, and include several technical and clarifying changes.
The company increased its remaining equity buyback authorization to US$1,000m, giving it additional capacity to repurchase shares beyond what has already been executed.
Blackbaud reported completing repurchases of 10,218,597 shares, representing 20.53% of its shares, for a total of US$739.17m under the buyback program announced on July 27, 2010.
Blackbaud issued 2026 earnings guidance, with expected GAAP revenue in the range of US$1.173b to US$1.179b. The company also highlighted an expanded AI agenda that includes its Agents for Good concept and a partnership with Anthropic to connect Claude for Nonprofits to Blackbaud data within Raiser’s Edge NXT, along with broader AI capabilities showcased at its bbcon 2025 and Product Update Briefings events.
Fair Value: updated from US$74.50 to US$59.80, which reflects an adjustment of about 20% in the modelled estimate.
Discount Rate: adjusted from 9.49% to 9.74%, which raises the hurdle used to discount future cash flows in the model.
Revenue Growth: revised from 3.85% to 4.02%, representing a modest upward change in the assumed top line growth rate.
Net Profit Margin: moved from 11.95% to 13.46%, indicating a higher assumed level of profitability in the forecast period.
Future P/E: reduced from 27.65x to 18.95x, marking a sizeable reset in the multiple applied to projected earnings.
Narratives on Simply Wall St are investor written stories that connect a companyās business outlook to specific numbers, such as assumed fair value, future revenue, earnings and margins. Each Narrative ties the story to a financial forecast and a fair value, then compares that to the current share price to help you think about when to buy or sell. Narratives sit inside the Community page, update automatically when fresh news or earnings land, and give you an accessible way to keep your thesis current without rebuilding a model from scratch.
If you want the full story behind the latest fair value moves for Blackbaud, it is worth reading the original Narrative and following how it evolves over time:
How expanding cloud platforms, AI driven products and network effects in nonprofit and corporate giving feed into revenue, margins and long term earnings power in the Blackbaud Narrative on Simply Wall St Community.
What the current assumptions for revenue growth, margin improvement, 2028 earnings, P/E and discount rate mean for the updated fair value of US$59.80 and how that compares with analyst price targets.
Which risks around competition, AI execution, customer budgets and market relevance could challenge the thesis if future results or newsflow shift away from the Narrativeās base case.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
