When we asked for your investment predictions at the end of last year, the majority of you were overwhelmingly optimistic—as were experts at the time. While you didn’t hit the nail square on the head, you didn’t exactly smash your fingers, either.
You said: The S&P 500 would end the year up. ✅
The vast majority of you guessed correctly that the S&P would be in the green this year, so we’re giving you a point. However, only 39% accurately predicted it would pop more than 10%. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs also underestimated the index’s climb, predicting it’d notch 6,500 points this year—as of December 23, it was sitting pretty at 6,909.79 points. Investors seemed to shrug off the great tariff panic that rattled markets this spring and instead latched onto the AI boom, boosting shares of any company that’s bumped into AI on the subway, despite concerns of a bubble brewing.
You said: Bitcoin would be worth $105,000–$150,000. ❌
When we asked you for your bitcoin price prediction, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap was worth ~$94k apiece. Six-in-10 of you thought it would end 2025 at or above that level. Just 30% guessed what really happened: It went down. After rising to a record high above $126k—propped up by support from institutional investors, regulators, and the POTUS—bitcoin erased all its annual gains during a deleveraging crisis this fall and failed to recover after. Experts also missed the mark: Bitwise and Standard Chartered predicted bitcoin would hit $200k this year, while VanEck analysts expected $180k.—JW