Entering the 2026 NBA playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder are the strongest repeat contenders for the championship this decade.
Looking to become the first back-to-back winners since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018, the Thunder (+110 on DraftKings, +115 on FanDuel, +135 on BetMGM) boast the shortest odds of any repeat championship contender entering the playoffs since the Warriors were -178 going for a three-peat in 2019.
Oklahoma City has been the clear favorite since last summer. Having blitzed the regular season behind MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the defending champions are the West’s top seed for the third consecutive year.
Oklahoma City led the league in point differential, defensive rating and net rating this season while fortifying the bench for another deep postseason run. Despite injuries to key players throughout the regular season, the Thunder should remain the favorite if they stay healthy during the postseason.
But plenty of elite teams with superstar talent stand in the way of an Oklahoma City repeat. The San Antonio Spurs charged up the standings and nearly overtook the Thunder in the Western Conference. They are a legitimate title threat behind dominant third-year center Victor Wembanyama.
The Boston Celtics were forgotten in the early regular-season shuffle as Jayson Tatum recovered from an Achilles injury suffered last playoffs. The elevated play of Jaylen Brown kept the Celtics afloat until Tatum’s late-season return made them the current favorite to win the Eastern Conference.
After winning the championship three years ago, the Denver Nuggets are still in the mix as well.
Following a completely unpredictable 2025 NBA playoffs filled with untimely injuries and unexpected upsets, can Oklahoma City navigate another postseason to raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy?
Will this year be different for OKC?
Last season, Oklahoma City entered the playoffs as the favorite as well at +185 odds. The gap was much closer with Boston, which was at +200 as a defending champion.
The injury to Tatum completely changed the trajectory of last year’s playoffs. The Celtics were eliminated by the Knicks in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Oklahoma City’s run in 2025 was also aided by the conference’s No. 2 seed (Houston) and No. 3 seed (Lakers) getting eliminated before the conference finals. With Boston also out early, Oklahoma City faced the East’s No. 4 seed, Indiana, in the NBA Finals. In a Game 7, Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton tore an Achilles.
To repeat as champions, Oklahoma City likely can’t rely on so many upsets and injuries helping its cause. But the Thunder are talented enough not to need that if they stay healthy.
A play-in contender likely won’t offer much of a threat to OKC. Last season, the Thunder swept Memphis in the opening round and earned an extra week of rest before a second-round, seven-game battle against Denver.
This season, the Thunder would play either the injury-riddled Los Angeles Lakers (+25000 to win the title) or the Houston Rockets (+6600) in the second round.
Spurs, Celtics, Nuggets are all threats
The West’s No. 2 seed, the San Antonio Spurs, closed the regular season 30-4. One of those four losses was the regular-season finale, in which Wembanyama didn’t play and rookie Carter Bryant logged a season-high 30 minutes. San Antonio significantly tightened the title-winner market by going from +1200 at the All-Star break to second in the odds at +450 on BetMGM.
A heavy favorite to advance past either Phoenix or Portland in the first round, San Antonio would face its first big test in the second round against either Denver or Minnesota.
In the East, the Celtics (+550) ascended with Tatum’s return from injury in March. Although Tatum didn’t play back-to-back games during the end of the regular season, Boston was 13-3 when the star wing was in the lineup.
Without Tatum for much of the regular season, Brown did the heavy lifting while the Celtics’ plethora of 3-point threats made them dangerous on any night. Now Tatum goes from facing end-of-season tanking lineups to the physicality of the playoffs.
Boston will be favored against either Philadelphia or Orlando during the first round. A rematch against No. 3-seed New York in the Eastern Conference semifinals would be an enticing series filled with storylines.
The next team on the odds board is the Denver Nuggets (+1000). In the midst of a 12-game winning streak, Denver has a very tough draw as the No. 3 seed in the West.
First, they must face a dangerous No. 6 seed in the Timberwolves (+5000). Coming off back-to-back trips to the Western Conference finals, Minnesota won two series as a No. 6 seed last season and beat the Nuggets in a memorable seven-game series two years ago.
But the health of Anthony Edwards, who missed 10 games in the last month, will be key to the T’wolves making the first round an interesting series. Denver claimed the regular-season series 3-1.
Should the Nuggets advance past Minnesota, they’re likely staring at a battle with San Antonio before even reaching a potential matchup with Oklahoma City in the Western Conference finals. Every series is potentially daunting for the Nuggets. But if Nikola Jokić maintains an MVP level of play, Jamal Murray continues his blistering regular season and Aaron Gordon stays healthy, the Nuggets are still capable of making a championship run.
Denver was also the last non-betting favorite to win the NBA championship, doing so with similar +1000 odds entering the first round in 2023.
Cleveland, Detroit, New York keep East race interesting
There isn’t much title respect being given to the Eastern Conference entering the playoffs. Although the league only has the Celtics among the top four title favorites, three more teams could realistically make deep runs.
The Cleveland Cavaliers (+1400) are fifth in title odds despite being the No. 4 seed in the East. Cleveland is still a bit of a mystery after the deadline acquisition of James Harden. Injuries meant the Cavaliers’ four best players — Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen — played fewer than 10 games together before the start of the postseason. On paper, the talent is present for Cleveland to win the East. It’s difficult to ascertain the upside of the Cavaliers with an unfamiliar rotation.
The Cavaliers play the No. 5 seed Toronto Raptors (+50000) in the first round. Although the Raptors swept the regular-season series 3-0, the teams haven’t played since late November — before Harden was acquired.
The East’s top seed, the Detroit Pistons, is not getting as much love in the title odds. The Pistons and the No. 3 seed New York Knicks are both at around +1800.
For Detroit, a 60-win regular season should calm some concerns about minimal playoff experience. Cade Cunningham’s recent return from injury is something to monitor for Detroit’s playoff hopes.
The Pistons will be favored as the No. 1 seed to move on in the first round, but could face Cleveland in the second round — a team currently above them in title odds.
Staying patient with their core, the Knicks are hoping to ride Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart to their first NBA Finals appearance since 1999. After falling just short against the Pacers a year ago, New York is under the spotlight as it attempts to make a run under first-year coach Mike Brown.
The Knicks face the No. 6 seed Atlanta Hawks (+12500) in the first round. New York won the season series 2-1, with the road team winning all three matchups.