The NBA postseason has arrived, and things get started on Tuesday with the Play-In Tournament. The 2026 NBA playoffs tip off this weekend and run for two months through the NBA Finals in June. Twenty teams are entering the postseason. One will be left standing.
Who will that be? Our experts are taking their best guesses, filling out the entire postseason bracket before the action gets started. The Thunder (+115 at FanDuel) are the fairly heavy favorite to win the title for the second year in a row. Three of our six writers picked OKC to repeat. But the fact that we have six different Finals predictions shows how open these playoffs could be.
Let’s get to the picks.
Brad Botkin’s bracket
Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports
NBA Finals pick: Spurs over Celtics
Botkin: I don’t think the Wemby takeover is happening… I think it has already happened, and we just haven’t fully accepted it yet. It feels like Steph Curry in 2015 when we weren’t fully aware of just how much he warped the geometry of the court and the power that he could and would have in a playoff setting, and the same is true of Victor Wembanyama on the other end of the court.
He changes everything to such a degree that the Spurs are ready to win a title years ahead of schedule, and beat the Nuggets, Thunder and Celtics in the process.
John Gonzalez’s bracket
Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports
NBA Finals pick: Nuggets over Celtics
Gonzalez: In the East, it’s chalk until the conference finals, where I’ll take the Celtics to get past the Pistons. Detroit doesn’t get enough respect, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Pistons advance all the way to the NBA Finals. And while I picked the Knicks to beat the Hawks in the first round, I don’t feel good about it and the Knicks shouldn’t expect it to be easy. New York is the favorite in that series, but the Hawks have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA since the All-Star break. Over that period, only the Spurs, Thunder and Celtics have more wins. It’s also worth noting the Knicks were merely break-even against teams that were .500 or better. Feels like an upset alert. At the very least, the Knicks would have rather faced the Raptors, who were the one “good” team they dispatched with ease all season, winning all five meetings. (Apologies to Canada for using the scare quotes for joke purposes.)
In the West, OKC were the big winners from the Nuggets getting the 3-seed. Now Denver and San Antonio are on the other side of the bracket and the Thunder won’t have to face either of them until the conference finals. Similarly, the Wolves probably weren’t thrilled that they’ll have to face the Nuggets in the first round instead of the Luka-less (and Austin-less) Lakers. The big matchup looming is that second-round showdown between the Nuggets and the Spurs. San Antonio has been dominant since Feb. 1 with a league-best 30-wins. But the Nuggets are also hot at the right time, having won 12 straight to finish out the regular season. And after suffering a ton of injuries, Denver is finally (mostly) healthy going into the playoffs. SGA might be the back-to-back MVP, and Wemby’s potential is unlimited, but right now I still believe Nikola Jokić is the best player in the world. It’s also hard to win in the playoffs. The Spurs haven’t been in the postseason since 2019. The Nuggets have an experience edge there. That puts us on a collision course for OKC-Denver in the Western Conference finals. Don’t forget that the Nuggets took the Thunder to Game 7 last postseason. That Denver team wasn’t nearly as good or as deep as this version.
In the Finals, the Nuggets get past the Celtics in what could be a classic, with Joker winning his second NBA title. When none of this unfolds, this entire post will self-destruct like something from Mission: Impossible.
James Herbert’s bracket
Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports
NBA Finals pick: Thunder over Celtics
Herbert: Maybe I’m crazy, but I think the Hawks and Knicks are on about the same level, as evidenced by the game they played a week ago that came down to the last fraction of a second. I’m admittedly a bit worried about Atlanta’s second unit, but let’s get nuts. (I also considered getting nuts with a Hornets-over-Pistons pick, but couldn’t quite bring myself to do it. Charlotte can totally give Detroit problems, though.)
The Cavs-over-Pistons pick is more about the Cavs than the Pistons. If Cleveland can finally stay healthy, this team has an extremely high ceiling. (OK, fine, it’s a little bit about Detroit’s spacing, too.) I have Boston beating the Cavs in the conference finals, though, because I trust the Celtics’ defensive infrastructure more.
In the West, I have no idea how anybody can confidently make predictions about any series involving two of the three top teams. I shrugged my shoulders and picked the Spurs to beat the Nuggets because San Antonio has been more balanced (and I can imagine some 2012 Thunder-Spurs vibes, with San Antonio this time playing the role of the younger, more athletic team). No one should be shocked if San Antonio (or Denver or Boston, for that matter) manages to dethrone the reigning champs, but I decided to make the most boring Finals prediction possible. In a matchup between two teams that lack glaring flaws, I’m taking the one that’s a bit deeper and can play five All-Defense-caliber dudes at the same time.
Jack Maloney’s bracket
Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports
NBA Finals pick: Celtics over Thunder
Maloney: A few months ago, the Celtics were a great story, but no one saw them as a serious playoff threat. That’s changed now that Jayson Tatum is back and playing at a level approaching his pre-injury self. The Celtics are the only Eastern Conference team in the top five in offensive and defensive rating, and their balance is what separates them from the other contenders.
No team has gone back-to-back since the Warriors in 2017 and 2018, but the Thunder are more than capable — if they can get out of the Western Conference gauntlet. The good news for the Thunder on that front is that the Spurs, Nuggets and Timberwolves are all on the other side of the bracket, and they’ll only have to play one of them. That makes it far easier to predict the Thunder as the Western Conference champs.
The Thunder would surely be favored in a Finals matchup against the Celtics, and could very well win. But Boston has defied the odds at every turn over the last seven months, and will cap a storybook season with an upset over the reigning champs.
Sam Quinn’s bracket
Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports
NBA Finals pick: Thunder over Cavs
Quinn: I’m fully prepared to look foolish in the East. I’ve fallen for James Harden teams plenty of times in the past and it’s never gone well. His task is more manageable this time around. The Cavs don’t need him to do everything. They need him to create easy buckets for the bigs and keep the offense afloat when Donovan Mitchell rests. That’s doable. Their big four has played only around 200 possessions together… but is +52 in those minutes. I wish they were a bit more athletic, but they have so many useful bench specialists that they’ll be more versatile than most assume. I don’t think the Pistons have a good enough half-court offense. I’m concerned that we’re two years in and the Knicks’ starters still don’t really work together. I think Boston’s roster is a bit more exploitable defensively in a playoff setting than it was a year ago, and I just don’t think Jayson Tatum is quite his old self yet. So hand me my dunce cap because I’m picking James Harden to make the Finals.
The West is a bit chalkier. My only seed-based upsets are Rockets over Lakers, which relies on the Lakers missing their two best players, and Denver over San Antonio, which is based on Nikola Jokić averaging 37 points per game against Victor Wembanyama over the past three years. The Nuggets gave the Thunder all they could handle last year, but remember, their wins in Games 1 and 3 were pretty fluky, whereas Oklahoma City blew the doors off of them in Games 2 and 7. Denver hasn’t been nearly as good in close games this year, and they’re far more vulnerable to a playoff injury than the ultra-deep Thunder. I just have more faith in Oklahoma City weathering the inevitable playoff storms than I do a Denver team betting big on Peyton Watson to return from an injury and on Aaron Gordon to avoid another one for two more months.
Cleveland beat Oklahoma City in an incredible regular-season game last season. Seeing Harden face his original team for a shot at that elusive championship would create some fun storylines. But the gap between the top three teams in the West and anyone in the East is significant enough to expect a relatively safe Finals. If Cleveland makes it this far, that still qualifies as a successful season. But the Thunder will be your repeat 2026 NBA champions.
Jasmyn Wimbish’s bracket
Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports
NBA Finals pick: Thunder over Pistons
Wimbish: There are not many surprises here. In the West, it might be a surprise to pick the Wolves over the Nuggets in the first round, but Minnesota matches up extremely well against Denver, and we’ve seen them get past the Nuggets in the postseason before. Regardless of what happens in the earlier rounds though, it feels inevitable that we’re headed for a collision course between the Thunder and Spurs. If we get that in the West finals, let’s hope it’s a seven-game series. San Antonio has had OKC’s number all regular season, but now that the Thunder are healthy heading into the playoffs, and given the depth and experience that group has, I’m going to give the defending champions the edge.
In the East, while the Pistons have a flawed roster, primarily when it comes to shooting depth, I’m putting all my confidence in their defense to get them to the NBA Finals. Either that, or they get caught off guard by the upstart Hornets who can run a team off the floor when their 3s are falling. But i’m still inclined to go with the team that has earned their No. 1 spot atop the conference with a suffocating, physical defense that can be a headache to get points against.
So now we have a Thunder-Pistons Finals matchup, and I’d have to go with OKC here. Detroit has the defense, but in a matchup against a deep Thunder team is where we’ll see all of Detroit’s flaws magnified on a great scale.