Thursday’s Europa League betting tips include 5/4 shot on Nottingham Forest and 16/5 Aston Villa special
Paul Higham has Thursday’s Europa League tips, including Porto backed for a fast start at Forest at 5/4, a 16/5 goalkeeper special at Villa Park and Real Betis to win a scrap in Spain at the same price.
Celta Vigo v Freiburg Tip – Mountain too steep to climb for Celta
Click here for Celta Vigo v Freiburg odds17:45 kick-offFirst leg: 0-3Live on TNT Sports Extra & HBO Max
The 15/2 on Celta Vigo to qualify seems a bit short considering they’re 3-0 down from the first leg in Germany, as even though they’re odds-on match favourites at 20/23 it’ll take a near miracle to turnaround that kind of deficit.
Freiburg are 29/10 to also win this second leg, but Julian Schuster’s side have just one win in eight away from home in Europe, and the same record in knockout games where they’ve only scored once on their travels.
Celta, though, have lost three of their last four at home with the other a draw and I don’t think they carry enough form to produce such a massive turnaround. They’ll give it a go but that’ll leave them vulnerable at the back. The best bet here is to back Freiburg to be able to just see out a comfortable draw.
Aston Villa v Bologna Tip – Back 16/5 keeper special at Villa Park
Click here for Aston Villa v Bologna odds20:00 kick-offFirst leg: 3-1Live on HBO Max & TNT Sports 2
Pretty much job done for Villa thanks to that late Ollie Watkins goal last week but there’s still enough in the tie for Unai Emery to give this his full attention, so I expect them to win this game as well as 4/6 favourites as Bologna will need to attack and that’ll play right into Villa’s hands.
Plus the hosts have won 10 of 11 this season in the Europa League and 15 of 17 European games at home including eight in a row, so even the 4/1 on the Italians winning the leg seems unlikely. Bologna have only lost two of their past 16 European games – the problem is both came against Villa so they really have their number.
But a nice bet here is on Villa goalkeeper saves, as they’ve made more than any other team left in the competition with 44, while Bologna have had the most shots and shots on target of the remaining sides. Emi Martinez made three saves last week while Marco Bizot had to make seven in Bologna’s visit in the group stage.
Real Betis v Braga Tip – Back Betis to pinch it at 16/5
Click here for Real Betis v Braga odds20:00 kick-offFirst leg: 1-1Live on TNT Sports Extra & HBO Max
It’s all square in this one after a 1-1 draw last week, with Betis 17/20 favourites despite just one win in nine, while Braga are a big price at 3/1 after going unbeaten on the road in the group phase but losing to Ferencvaros.
I wouldn’t expect too many goals here – six of Betis’ last eight had under 2.5 goals in them while Braga have seen both teams score in just two of their last seven away games. The Portuguese outfit have also keept clean sheets in their last five first halves so this does shape up to be a bit of a defensive struggle.
The 90-minute draw will be popular at 5/2 with Betis drawing four of the last five, but I think the hosts can pinch this one in a tough low-scoring scrap.
20:00 kick-offFirst leg: 1-1Live on HBO Max & TNT Sports 1
Another tie hanging in the balance after a 1-1 in Portugal last week, meaning Forest are 8/13 to qualify and 5/4 to win the match, as they did 2-0 when they last met at the City Ground in October. More recently though they’ve won just once at home in 11, mainly thanks to failing to score more than once in seven in a row.
So Porto will fancy their chances as 23/10 underdogs and their challenge will come early. They’ve scored first in all three knockout games so far in the first half, and in fact have scored 12 of their 18 Europa League goals before half time this season.
This game could go either way – Porto are leading the Portuguese league but the Premier League side obviosly have plenty of quality. However it ends though we’ll back Porto to make the first big move.
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