This NBA regular season felt more like a drag this year than previous seasons, but it’s over now. No more talk about tanking teams, no more resting healthy players trying to get a favorable seed.
Now that we’ve reached the postseason, all the losses matter, and there’s very little room for error. The play-in games tip Tuesday, and the nightcap between the Trail Blazers and Suns should be one of the best games of the round.
Neither the Blazers nor the Suns were expected to be in position for the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference before the season started, yet here they are battling for the right to face the Spurs in Round 1.
Oddsmakers have installed the Suns as 4.5-point favorites at home against the Blazers with a low total of 217.5 points, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Trail Blazers vs. Suns, prediction, best bet
The Blazers and Suns haven’t faced each other since Portland picked up a road win late in February, and both teams look different now than they did then.
The Blazers are 14-10 since and have the third-best defensive rating in the league over that span, according to Cleaning the Glass. Before that game, they ranked 19th defensively, which makes their improvement truly remarkable.
Betting on the NBA?
The Suns went 12-12 over that same span and tapered off a bit from their inspiring start to the season as a gritty, grind-it-out team. They maintained the grit, but haven’t been able to boost their offense above league average. The upside for the Suns is that the Blazers have been below league average offensively, which is why this total has come in so low.
The Blazers have been a high-volume shooting team, but they shoot just 34 percent from beyond the arc. Their offense is often propped up by center Donovan Clingan, who is relentless on the glass. He leads the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, and the Blazers lead the league in second-chance points.
Even if they can extend possessions, the Blazers will eventually need to make shots, and haven’t shown much ability to do that effectively outside of Deni Avdija driving into the paint to create offense for teammates.
If this game comes down to which players can make tough baskets with the defense draped on them, I’m much more inclined to put my money on Devin Booker. This spread is a little too tight at Suns -4.5, so I’ll take Phoenix to win outright and punch their ticket to the first round.
The Play: Suns moneyline -166 (FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.